1/27/2025
Wilshire estimates a 1.8% decrease in the aggregate funded ratio for U.S. state pension plans in the fourth quarter of 2024 but more than 7% increase for the calendar year.
Santa Monica, Calif., January 27, 2025 – The aggregate funded ratio for U.S. state pension plans decreased by an estimated 1.8 percentage points during the fourth quarter of 2024 to end the quarter at 87.3%,a 7.4% increase from December 2023, according to Wilshire, a diversified global financial services firm. Wilshire assists in providing a suite of OCIO and advisory services to some of the nation’s largest retirement plans which help fund the retirement of millions of Americans.
The quarterly change in funding resulted from a 1.3% decrease in asset value and a 0.7% increase in liability value. Although the aggregate funded ratio is estimated to have decreased by 1.8% in the fourth quarter, it is estimated to have increased by 7.4% for the calendar year 2024.
“This quarter’s decrease in the aggregate funded status was driven by an overall decline in asset values, resulting from negative returns across many asset classes during the fourth quarter. U.S. equity, as measured by the FT Wilshire 5000 IndexSM, was one of the few positive-returning asset classes, up 2.6% in the fourth quarter,” stated Ned McGuire, Managing Director at Wilshire. “During the calendar year 2024, the FT Wilshire 5000 IndexSM attained several all-time highs and posted an over 20% return for the second consecutive year, propelling the year-end funded ratio by more than 7% for the calendar year,” Mr. McGuire added.
A 12-month review of the funded ratio follows:
The aggregate figures represent an estimate of the combined assets and liabilities of state pension plans included in Wilshire’s 2024 state funding study. The funded ratio is based on liabilities, service cost, benefit payments and contributions in line with Wilshire’s 2024 state funding study.
Wilshire’s practice is to collect data on public pension plans from Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports (ACFR) filings as of their fiscal year-end(FYE). All data for fiscal year 2023 is based on the 241 constituents in Wilshire State and City & County pension plans that maintain defined benefit pension plans as of year-end 2023. The estimated monthly funded ratios are based on liabilities, service cost, benefit payments and contributions inline with Wilshire’s 2024 State and City & County funding studies.
The assumed asset allocation is below:
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The FT Wilshire US 5000 Index℠ is a broad-based market capitalization-weighted index that aims to capture 100%of the U.S. investible market capitalization.
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The Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, non-investment grade (middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below), fixed-rate corporate bond market. Excludes bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk.
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